Wagers

11 open wagers

• Will OpenAI IPO in 2026?momoResolves Jan 1, 2027
• Will people walk on the Moon before 2028?A crewed landing with astronauts on the lunar surface, from any nation.Resolves Jan 1, 2028
• Will anyone run a two-hour marathon?A men's marathon under 2:00:00, ratified by World Athletics, before 2028.Resolves Jan 15, 2028
• Will driverless robotaxis reach five US cities?One operator offering paid rides with nobody behind the wheel, in five metro areas, by the end of 2026.Resolves Jan 1, 2027
• Will Bitcoin close above $150,000 in 2026?At least one daily close above $150,000 on Coinbase during 2026.Resolves Jan 2, 2027
• Will Apple sell a foldable this year?A foldable-screen Apple device you can order from Apple before 2027.Resolves Jan 1, 2027
• Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?As ranked by NASA's global temperature analysis, published in early 2027.Resolves Feb 15, 2027
• Will anyone sell a solid-state battery car?A production car with an all-solid-state pack, on sale to the public before 2028.Resolves Jan 1, 2028
• Will December inflation come in under 2.5%?The first CPI release for December 2026, measured year over year.Resolves Jan 20, 2027
• Will Starship land both stages on one flight?Booster and ship both recovered for reuse on the same mission, before 2027.Resolves Jan 1, 2027
• Will an AI model score 90% on SWE-bench?Any public model, on SWE-bench Verified, by the end of June 2027.Resolves Jun 30, 2027