Bets

Open bets

Questions worth betting on

• What will happen by a date you can name?

  Turn a forecast into one observable outcome with a firm deadline.

• Which observable result would change your mind?

  Name the evidence before either side knows how it turns out.

• Which of two approaches will perform better?

  Choose one metric, one comparison window, and two clear sides.

• What claim from your public writing would you defend?

  Make a durable prediction from something you have already argued.